Market Overview
Gold and silver prices are lower in early U.S. trading on Monday, influenced by a higher U.S. dollar index and a rise in U.S. Treasury yields. The August gold price is down $9.40 at $1,920.20, while the September silver price is down $0.05 at $22.97.
Asian and European stock markets had mixed to higher performances in overnight trading, while U.S. stock indexes are expected to open with mixed results. The S&P stock index futures reached a 14-month high on Friday. Trading is expected to be quieter today as many American traders and investors are taking an extra day off ahead of the U.S. Independence Day holiday on Tuesday, when all U.S. markets are closed. Some U.S. markets will close early today.
Upcoming Events
This week, the marketplace awaits the U.S. employment situation report for June, which will be released on Friday. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecasted to be up 240,000, compared to a gain of 339,000 in the May report. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is scheduled to travel to China on Thursday for meetings with high-level Chinese officials.
European Manufacturing PMI
In overnight news, the Eurozone June manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in slightly lower than market expectations, at 43.4. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector.
Key Outside Markets
The U.S. dollar index is higher today, while Nymex crude oil prices are trading around $71.25 a barrel. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is currently at 3.849%.
U.S. Economic Releases
Today’s U.S. economic releases include the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business manufacturing, the global manufacturing PMI, and construction spending.
Technical Analysis
In terms of technical analysis, the gold futures bears have the overall near-term advantage, with a six-week-old price downtrend. The next upside price objective for bulls is to close August futures above solid resistance at $2,000.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,900.00. The first resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,917.80, followed by this week’s high of $1,943.40. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,908.10, then at $1,900.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.0.
Meanwhile, the silver bears also have the overall near-term technical advantage, with prices in a six-week-old downtrend. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September futures prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of $24.835. The next downside price objective for bears is closing prices below solid support at the March low of $20.425. First resistance can be found at last week’s high of $23.335, followed by $23.50. Next support is seen at last week’s low of $22.485, then at the June low of $22.34. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.0.
