The precious metals market finds itself at a pivotal moment as gold prices consolidate within an increasingly narrow trading range, setting the stage for what could be a significant directional breakout in the coming sessions. This technical standoff occurs against the backdrop of renewed bullish sentiment from major financial institutions, with Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) recently raising its ambitious price target for the yellow metal to an average of $3,600 per ounce for both 2025 and 2026.
The convergence of technical patterns and fundamental forecasting creates a compelling narrative for gold investors and traders who have watched the precious metal navigate a complex landscape of monetary policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and evolving market dynamics throughout the year. As gold approaches what technical analysts describe as a critical inflection point, the alignment of chart patterns with institutional price projections suggests that the next major move in gold could be substantial and sustained.
Technical Analysis: The Ascending Triangle Formation
Gold’s recent price action has created a textbook example of an ascending triangle pattern, one of the most closely watched formations in technical analysis. The precious metal has been trading within a tightening range bounded by two key technical levels that have repeatedly tested traders’ patience and market participants’ resolve.
The upper boundary of this consolidation pattern is defined by horizontal resistance at the $3,360 level, a price point that has consistently capped upward movements and turned back multiple rally attempts. This resistance level has proven particularly stubborn, with gold futures and spot prices encountering selling pressure each time they approach this psychological and technical barrier. The repeated failures to break decisively above $3,360 have created a well-defined ceiling that technical analysts are watching closely for signs of either continuation or breakdown.
Conversely, the lower boundary of the triangle is formed by an uptrend support line that extends back to the February 28 low. This ascending support has demonstrated remarkable resilience, successfully defending against six separate tests of its integrity, including a notable challenge that occurred just last Thursday. The ability of this trendline to hold against repeated downside pressure suggests underlying strength in gold’s long-term upward trajectory, even as short-term price action remains constrained.
The significance of this ascending triangle cannot be overstated. Unlike symmetrical triangles, which suggest uncertainty about future direction, ascending triangles typically carry a bullish bias. The pattern suggests that while sellers are consistently defending a specific price level (the horizontal resistance), buyers are becoming increasingly aggressive at progressively higher prices (the ascending support). This dynamic often resolves in favor of the bulls, particularly when other fundamental factors align with the technical setup.
Momentum Indicators Signal Gradual Strengthening
Beyond the price pattern itself, momentum indicators are beginning to show signs of gradual improvement that could support an eventual upside breakout. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), one of the most widely followed momentum oscillators, has been trending slowly upward, suggesting that buying pressure is beginning to outweigh selling pressure despite the sideways price action.
Similarly, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has shown a mild bullish bias, with the signal line relationship gradually trending into positive territory. While neither indicator provides definitive confirmation of an imminent breakout, the subtle improvement in momentum characteristics suggests that the technical foundation for higher prices may be strengthening.
However, experienced traders and analysts emphasize the importance of maintaining objectivity in the face of these potentially positive signals. The current technical setup, while showing a marginal preference for upside resolution, does not guarantee that outcome. Market participants are advised to remain open-minded about potential scenarios and to avoid the common trap of confirmation bias that can cloud judgment during periods of consolidation.
Breakout Scenarios: Bulls vs Bears
Technical analysts have mapped out two primary scenarios that could unfold as gold’s consolidation pattern reaches its inevitable resolution. The probability of each outcome depends largely on how broader market forces interact with the established technical levels in the coming sessions.
The Bullish Scenario envisions a decisive daily close above the critical $3,360 resistance level, which would immediately trigger initial upside targets. The first objective in such a breakout would be the July 16 high of $3,377 USD, a level that represents the most recent significant peak and would need to be convincingly surpassed to confirm the bullish momentum.
Should gold successfully clear this initial hurdle, the next logical target emerges at the psychologically important $3,400 USD level. This round number often acts as both support and resistance in precious metals trading, and its conquest would likely attract additional momentum-based buying from algorithmic trading systems and technical followers.
Beyond $3,400, USD the technical roadmap points toward the June peak of $3,451.30 USD, a level that marked a significant high earlier in the year before gold entered its current consolidation phase. The recapture of this level would represent a meaningful expansion of gold’s recent trading range and could set the stage for an assault on the ultimate prize: the all-time high of $3,500 established during the precious metal’s spectacular rally earlier this year.
The Bearish Risk Scenario, while considered less probable given the ascending triangle pattern, cannot be dismissed. A breakdown below the confluence of technical support levels could trigger a more significant correction in gold prices. The first major concern would be a breach of the 50-day moving average, which currently aligns closely with the ascending trendline support. Such a breakdown would not only violate the triangle pattern but also call into question the intermediate-term uptrend that has been in place since February.
In the event of such a breakdown, technical analysts have identified initial downside targets at $3,310, corresponding to the July 17 low, and $3,283, which matches the July 9 low. These levels would represent significant pullbacks from current prices and could attract opportunistic buyers looking to add exposure at more favorable levels. However, a more serious concern would emerge if selling pressure extends to the major support zone around $3,250, which would indicate a more fundamental shift in market sentiment.
CIBC’s Upgraded Forecast: From Conservative to Ambitious
The technical consolidation in gold prices has not dampened the enthusiasm of institutional analysts, with CIBC Capital Markets emerging as one of the most bullish major banks in terms of precious metals forecasting. Led by analyst Anita Soni, CIBC’s research team has significantly elevated their price expectations for gold, reflecting what they describe as “a banquet of uncertainty around the world” that continues to boost the appeal of alternative reserve assets.
The bank’s current forecast represents a dramatic revision from their previous expectations established just months ago. In December 2023, Soni’s team predicted gold prices would average $2,800 per ounce for 2024, a target that has been not only reached but substantially exceeded as gold has climbed approximately 28% year-to-date. The precious metal set a fresh record trading high at about $3,500 per ounce in late April before pulling back to current levels in the $3,300-range.
CIBC now expects bullion to average $3,600 per ounce in the second half of 2025, representing approximately a 3% gain above April’s record peak of $3,500. This upward revision significantly exceeds their earlier conservative estimates and reflects the bank’s assessment that the fundamental drivers supporting gold’s bull market remain not only intact but potentially strengthening.
The forecast extends beyond 2025, with CIBC maintaining their $3,600 average price expectation through 2026. This sustained optimism suggests that the bank views the current drivers of gold demand as structural rather than cyclical factors. Only in 2027 does CIBC anticipate some moderation, with their forecast calling for prices to average approximately $3,300 per ounce, followed by a further decline to around $3,000 in 2028.
The Fundamental Drivers Behind CIBC’s Bullishness
CIBC’s upgraded price target rests on three primary fundamental pillars that the bank’s analysts believe will continue supporting gold prices throughout their forecast period. Each of these factors represents a significant shift in the global economic and political landscape that has emerged over the past year.
Expected U.S. Rate Cuts form the cornerstone of CIBC’s bullish thesis. Soni and her team have taken a definitive stance that Federal Reserve rate cuts are not a matter of “if” but rather “when and how fast” they will be implemented. This perspective aligns with growing market expectations that the Federal Reserve’s restrictive monetary policy stance may need to be adjusted as economic conditions evolve.
The relationship between interest rates and gold prices represents one of the most reliable correlations in financial markets. Gold, which pays no yield or dividend, becomes relatively more attractive when interest rates decline, as the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets decreases. CIBC’s confidence in eventual Fed rate cuts suggests they expect this fundamental support mechanism for gold to strengthen considerably in the coming months.
Persistent Geopolitical Tensions represent the second pillar of CIBC’s analysis. The bank specifically cites elevated conflicts in the Middle East and ongoing tensions related to Russia as factors that are likely to maintain safe-haven demand for gold. Unlike economic cycles, which tend to be predictable in their broad patterns, geopolitical conflicts can persist for extended periods and often escalate unexpectedly, creating sustained demand for assets perceived as stores of value during uncertain times.
The global political landscape has indeed become more complex and potentially unstable over the past year, with various regional conflicts showing little sign of resolution. CIBC’s analysis suggests that these tensions are not temporary disruptions but rather represent a new baseline level of global uncertainty that will continue supporting gold’s appeal as a portfolio diversifier and safe-haven asset.
Accelerating De-dollarization forms the third key element of CIBC’s bullish case. The bank argues that global uncertainties are driving central banks to diversify their reserves away from dollar-denominated assets and into gold. This trend, which has been developing gradually over several years, appears to have accelerated significantly in response to recent geopolitical developments and economic uncertainties.
Central bank gold purchases have reached historic levels in recent years, with monetary authorities around the world adding substantial quantities of the precious metal to their reserves. This institutional demand provides a fundamental floor for gold prices that is less sensitive to short-term market sentiment and trading dynamics than retail investor demand.
Investment Implications and Portfolio Context
The combination of constructive technical patterns and ambitious institutional price targets creates a compelling backdrop for investors considering gold exposure. However, the precious metal’s role within a diversified investment portfolio requires careful consideration of both its benefits and limitations.
Gold’s performance in 2025 has been nothing short of spectacular, with the precious metal climbing more than 25% year-to-date. This performance has been driven by the same fundamental factors that CIBC cites in their upgraded forecast: persistent inflation concerns, geopolitical uncertainties, and growing questions about the sustainability of global monetary policies.
However, investors should also consider the risks associated with gold investing, including the metal’s volatility, its lack of income generation, and its sensitivity to changes in real interest rates. While CIBC’s forecast is optimistic, other analysts may have different views, and unexpected changes in monetary policy, geopolitical developments, or economic conditions could impact gold prices in ways that current forecasts do not anticipate.
Market Sentiment and Trading Dynamics
The current technical and fundamental setup in gold has created an environment where market sentiment appears increasingly focused on the potential for upside breakouts rather than downside risks. This shift in sentiment is reflected not only in institutional forecasts like CIBC’s but also in the behavior of various market participants.
Professional traders and algorithmic systems are likely positioning for the resolution of the ascending triangle pattern, with many prepared to add long positions on a confirmed breakout above $3,360. This dynamic can create a self-reinforcing cycle where technical breakouts attract additional buying interest, which in turn helps sustain the upward momentum.
However, the concentration of expectations around upside outcomes also creates risks. If gold fails to break out as expected, or if broader market conditions shift unexpectedly, the disappointment could trigger more significant selling pressure than current technical analysis suggests. Market participants with longer investment horizons may be better positioned to weather such short-term volatility than those focused on near-term trading opportunities.
Looking Ahead: Catalysts and Timeline
As gold approaches what appears to be a critical juncture, several potential catalysts could serve as triggers for the resolution of the current consolidation pattern. Federal Reserve communications and policy decisions will likely play a significant role, particularly any signals about the timing and magnitude of potential rate cuts.
Geopolitical developments, economic data releases, and changes in investor risk sentiment could also provide the spark needed to push gold decisively above resistance or below support. The beauty of technical analysis lies partly in its ability to identify these inflection points before they occur, giving market participants the opportunity to position themselves for potential outcomes.
CIBC’s forecast timeline suggests that their expected price appreciation could unfold over the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. This extended timeframe allows for the kind of fundamental developments—rate cuts, continued geopolitical tensions, and central bank buying—that the bank expects to drive gold prices higher.
Conclusion: A Convergence of Technical and Fundamental Factors
The current environment surrounding gold presents a rare convergence of technical and fundamental factors that could drive significant price appreciation in the precious metal. The ascending triangle pattern provides a clear technical roadmap for potential breakout scenarios, while CIBC’s upgraded $3,600 price target reflects growing institutional confidence in gold’s fundamental outlook.
For investors and traders, the key will be managing both the opportunities and risks that this setup presents. While the probability appears to favor upside resolution of the current consolidation, markets can surprise even the most careful analysts and sophisticated participants. The most successful approach may involve preparing for multiple scenarios while maintaining the discipline to respond appropriately as events unfold.
The precious metal’s ability to break decisively above $3,360 resistance will likely serve as the first test of whether the bullish scenario can play out as envisioned. Success at that level could open the door to the more ambitious price targets that institutions like CIBC have outlined, while failure could force a reassessment of both technical and fundamental assumptions.
As gold continues to consolidate within its ascending triangle pattern, market participants will be watching closely for the signs that indicate which scenario is most likely to unfold. The resolution, when it comes, could set the tone for gold’s performance throughout the remainder of 2025 and beyond.
Acknowledgment: This article was written with the help of AI, which also assisted in research, drafting, editing, and formatting this current version.
